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Main Stream Media Got You Confused? Here's What We Think Might Actually Happen with North Korea


The Stakes

First, what we’d be up against: North Korea has one of the largest (and worst-fed) standing armies in the world. Over a million strong, with about eight million more troops in reserve. A few days ago, China moved 150,000 troops to the North Korea border.
We have a ton of firepower and some military bases in the region too. And South Korea has troops on its border with North Korea. And Japan is also ready. South Korea’s capital, Seoul, is within range of hundreds of North Korean artillery installments on the border. The Pentagon estimates that if North Korea let the artillery fly, one million people in Seoul would be killed in four hours.
If North Korea continues with its nuclear threats and we attack in response, we risk more than a million lives and a ground war involving China. At the most extreme, nukes get involved.
If we don’t attack no one will take our president at his word. And if we don’t respond at all North Korea becomes a nuclear power player.
 

What does North Korea want, anyway?

The North Korean regime wants nukes really, really badly, and they seem willing to do anything, no matter the cost to their own people, to get them. That sounds like Dr. Evil-type stuff. And yes, we think of North Korea, especially its dictators, as lunatics. They aren’t. They’re some of the most rational leaders in the world.

Of course, they’re also horrific people who do unspeakably horrific things to human beings and don’t let their people engage in any capacity with the rest of the world. The place is Mars even to South Koreans, who only a few decades ago shared their country and culture. But Kim Jong Un was educated in Switzerland. He knows something about the world, and he’s not crazy. Like I said, he’s one of the most predictable leaders in the world, if not the most, once you understand what North Korea wants: 
 
 

North Korea wants: to be a power:

That’s it. North Korea is a small, very weak country, and they know they don’t stand a chance should the world do decide enough is enough. The only way the regime can stay in power is if it has an enormous bargaining chip, and it’s calculated that the only such bargaining chip it can reasonably get, given its resources, is a nuclear weapon. They don’t want to make nukes so they can immediately bomb us. They just want to have the real threat so we don’t bother them. Once you understand this, everything they do makes more sense.
What’s more, they already have the technology to make a nuclear bomb. Right now, they’re just working on their miniaturization program, trying to find a way to make a bomb small enough they can put it on a warhead and threaten San Francisco.
And then there’s China: they eventually want to control the region. That means at some point they’ll have to cut the North Korea anchor because as long as they support NK, they won’t get anywhere with Japan or South Korea.
 

All in all, we are looking at two possible outcomes, Do it or don’t.


A) We don’t attack. The status quo continues, and North Korea keeps advancing its program. But this also means peace. And remember, though time is running short, and China has the incentive to help.
B) We attack and North Korea backs down. If we attack, it’ll likely be a precision attack on the test site, possibly other known North Korean missile and nuke sites. Kinda like what we did in Syria, but with a lot more on the line. Such an attack has to be strong enough to convince KJU that the United States not only is exponentially more powerful but is serious about its threat to use that power. The attack also must be soft enough that it allows KJU to save face if he doesn’t retaliate. Either that or China somehow convinces KJU to back down from a war.
 
C) We attack and North Korea retaliates. We respond to the test by taking out strategic North Korea nuclear sites. Even if North Korea responds moderately, that will escalate in the region, considering Japan and South Korea’s fears. Eventually, Seoul goes up in flames, because NK has a ton of conventional missiles aimed there already. Possibly, a million people die there in four hours. The U.S. carries out massive airstrikes. South Korean soldiers fight North Korean soldiers on the border. One side probably invades the other. It’s a bloodbath.
China (which just moved 150,000 troops to the NK border) either seals the border so North Koreans don’t flee by the many thousands, meaning probably some sort of conflict there, or comes down and supports . . . who the fuck knows which side?
No matter what happens now, it’s an incomprehensibly large humanitarian crisis, but not only because North Koreans have one of the largest armies in the world and have gone full-on apocalyptic. More important than that, the North Korean people are starving and poor. They have literally no understanding of anything really happening in the world outside North Korea, and the country will quickly descend into unmanageable mass hysteria. Many, many innocent people will die there, and not from military action. They will die over several weeks, maybe months, from starvation, disease, and yeah, murder.
Eventually, the US wins this war though. Now we’re faced with a failed state and an unrivaled humanitarian crisis in East Asia while escalating our involvement in the Middle East and toeing a thin line with an ambitious Russia.
 
 
 D) We don’t get all their nukes because many are on mobile launchers. North Korea goes full-out batshit and launches or tries to, the possible functional nukes it might have, targeting South Korea and maybe Japan. (Seoul still goes up in flames, no matter if the missiles work.)
More options: Trump’s call. Either nuke Pyongyang to teach the world what happens if you use nukes or full-on invade and destroy the regime.
If option 1 (Nuke em): What the fuck? Those people are innocent, almost in the way of Adam and Eve. They’re ignorant of the world that destroyed them, brainwashed and malnourished and sick, living in a perpetual, quotidian fear of death, imprisonment, torture, disease, famine, and destitution that’s unrecognizable to them
If option 2 (Invade): How the fuck did the United States of America allow Kim Jong-Un to get this far over the last 10 years, putting the U.S. in a ground war involving China, in Asia.

Our Opinion at Liberty Rush
 
Who the fuck knows? North Korean experts, people who have actually lived there, and they can’t say whether Kim would attack, or whether he’d try to go nuclear. The questions here are: how apocalyptic he is and how badly his generals want to launch a coup and avert a war. We simply don’t know.
But I think Trump, when the chips are down, won’t want to be responsible for the deaths of perhaps millions of innocent people. If Kim doesn’t back down, I think Trump will. Trump won’t want to kill millions of people just to “look strong.” He’ll face the fact that he’s just going to kick the nuclear option can down the road. until the end.
 
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Posted in World on September 06 at 05:02 AM

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